Oscar Forecast - 2001
by Cary Wong
You'd think that after its victory at the Golden Globes, Gladiatorwould
be a front-runner for the Academy Award. But if the last decade is any
indication, the Oscar and the Globe seldom go to the same score...
GG
Academy
1990: The Sheltering Sky*
Dances with Wolves
1991: Beauty and the Beast
Beauty and the Beast
1992: Aladdin
Aladdin
1993: Heaven and Earth*
Schindler's List
1994: The Lion King
The Lion King
1995: A Walk in the Clouds*
Il Postino (d)
Pocahontas (m/c)
1996: The English Patient
The English Patient (d)
Emma (m/c)
1997: Titanic
Titanic (d)
The Full Monty (m/c)
1998: The Truman Show*
Life is Beautiful (d)
Shakespeare in Love (m/c)
1999: The Legend of 1900*
The Red Violin
* wasn't nominated for an Oscar
If Gladiator does win the Oscar then it will have bucked the
trend for a non-Disney movie.
Now that Deborah Allen and her dance interpretations have been banned
from the Academy Awards, the category of Best Score has finally rid itself
of the embarrassing stigma of being the category most people go to the
bathroom for (it was tied with the documentaries for a while...but those
tap interpretations were too much).
Why do we care if a score wins an Academy Award? Prestige. While most
nominations would be laughed at in any serious film score discussion (the
win for The Full Monty almost made me embarrassed to be a film and
film music fan), the Academy usually gets one or two right and one always
hopes for their favorite to win. With that in mind, I will try to break
down the scores from the year 2000 into likely front-runners:
NO-BRAINERS:
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (Tan Dun)
Gladiator (Hans Zimmer and Lisa Gerrard)
These are the sure things. There's no doubt in my mind they will get
in since they will probably get swept in with their respective picture's
"sweep," which usually goes: "I like this movie so much, I'm going to nominate
it for everything." And since composers nominate the scores, they will
not want to miss honoring these movies in their category. Both scores are
popular with the masses as well, and Gladiator should get nominated
despite its Golden Globe win.
HONOR ROLL:
The Patriot (John Williams)
Erin Brockovich (Thomas Newman)
Quills (Stephen Warbeck)
These scores are likely to get it (but not assured) because of the pedigree
of the film as well as the popularity of the composer. Williams always
seems to get nominated for something; Newman will get nominated again to
make up for being bypassed for a win for last year's American Beauty;
and Warbeck, who won for Shakespeare in Love, came up with a completely
opposite score for the controversial Quills.
MOST PROLIFIC:
Rachel Portman: The Closer You Get, The Legend of Bagger Vance,
Chocolat
Maurice Jarre: Sunshine, I Dream of Africa
James Newton Howard: Dinosaur, Unbreakable, Vertical Limit
These three composers not only scored a lot of movies this year, but
each effort was first-rate. And while it is possible to get nominated twice
in the same category (James Horner did it in 1995 for Braveheart and
Apollo 13 in the dramatic score category, and Thomas Newman did
it the year before for The Shawshank Redemption and Little Women),
the score connected with the highest profile film usually gets the nod.
This year the strongest contenders are Portman's Chocolat, which
will get help from a Miramax push for the film; Jarre's Sunshine,
which has been mention as a dark horse in certain acting categories; and
Howard's Dinosaur, which is Disney's one big bid for best score
honors (a category Disney won routinely in the early '90s).
POSSIBLES:
Cast Away (Alan Silvestri)
The Perfect Storm (James Horner)
Chicken Run (Harry Gregson-Williams and John Powell)
While each of these movies is box office and critical favorite, their
showings at the Oscars are question marks. Cast Away does seem to
be a popular favorite right now with most people noting how brilliant it
was that there was no music at all in the island section. But how's that
an endorsement for Silvestri's score for the rest of the film? Horner seems
to be in Academy limbo after the success of his Titanic score and
CD, and in order to get out of it, he may have to re-invent himself...which
he has yet to do. The Perfect Storm was a technical marvel, which
may help Horner's chances with yet another "down with the ship" score.
Chicken Run's odds, to quote the film, are one-in-a-million. Then
we still have a chanceóGotta love those plucky chickens.
LONG SHOTS:
All the Pretty Horses (Marty Stewart)
The Road to El Dorado (Hans Zimmer)
Malena (Ennio Morricone)
The last time I had film score deja vu was when I heard The Color
Purple and thought Georges Delerue (as it turns out it in court, it
basically was Delerue). This happened again with All the Pretty Horses
and Thomas Newman. Malena is a melancholy score that's typical of
Morricone's work in this genre. The Road to El Dorado is bouncy
fun.
FAN FAVORITES:
Hollow Man (Jerry Goldsmith)
What Lies Beneath (Alan Silvestri)
Wonder Boys (Christopher Young)
Thirteen Days (Trevor Jones)
The Grinch (James Horner)
X-Men (Michael Kamen)
Mission: Impossible 2 (Hans Zimmer)
Requiem for a Dream (Clint Mansell)
These are pretty much wash-outs for Oscars, including Goldsmith's aptly
titled Hollow Man score (just add a comma in the middle) and Silvestri's
Herrmann-esque What Lies Beneath.
Now I'm going to narrow things down with my actual predictions for 2000
Best Original Score nominations:
CHOCOLAT
Rachel Portman has been an Oscar favorite in recent years...and she
should be. Her win for Emma was deserved, and her nomination last
year for The Cider House Rules should pave the way for her third
nomination for this light-as-air-confection, which is getting a big push
from Miramax. And while I think Portman's score for The Legend of Bagger
Vance was more ambitious (you too can believe Matt Damon can golf!),
the score for Chocolat is as sweet as its title.
CROUCHING TIGER HIDDEN DRAGON
Can a movie that most people perceive to be just a martial arts film
get the lion's share of the nominations this year? I believe so, since
it is so much more than just a routine kung-fu flick. It possesses a Zen-like
sensibilities and is more of a romance (with two simultaneous love stories
in fact) than an action film. Classical composer Tan Dun may follow fellow
concert writer John Corigliano (The Red Violin) with a win for his
beautiful, meditative score which traced the fight scenes as adeptly as
the love scenes.
DINOSAUR
Disney usually gets one nomination for their animated feature, and
while the T-Rexes didn't sing in this one, James Newton Howard's score
may serve as the epic, romantic score that Oscars have loved so much in
the past. Last nominated for the slight My Best Friend's Wedding,
it's time for Howard to get recognition for his more ambitious scores.
GLADIATOR
Oscars love a winner, and this box office champ should reap the rewards
for its relentless action scenes and adventurous camera work. Hans Zimmer
and Lisa Gerrard's score seems to be a retread of their best work (The
Insider meets The Lion King) though the popularity of the score
to non-score fans will be hard to ignore in this weak year.
THE PATRIOT
Williams is a master of Americana, with his various Olympic themes
and his recent scores to Spielberg's Saving Private Ryan and Unfinished
Journey. Although Williams seems to get nominated for almost anything
he burps (although one of his best scores, Jurassic Park was overshadowed
by Schindler's List, released the same year), The Patriot
is a worthy score for a nomination.
***
And if Roger Ebert can give his memo to the Academy, I'll do mine for
any composer who is reading this and is still sifting through their "For
Your Consideration" CDs [Uhhh...sorry we didnít run this column two weeks
ago]. I recommend you pop these into your CD player right away:
CHICKEN RUN (Harry Gregson-Williams and John Powell)
THE LEGEND OF BAGGER VANCE (Rachel Portman)
PAY IT FORWARD (Thomas Newman)
UNBREAKABLE (James Newton Howard)
They deserve a listen and as many votes as possible. Like the tight
race in last year's presidential decision, every vote counts...
How do Caryís predictions stack up? The actual nominees are being announced
today...check out Oscars.com
MailBag@filmscoremonthly.com
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