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Posted: |
Apr 9, 2011 - 12:47 PM
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By: |
BasilFSM
(Member)
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I think this is important enough to share here. Wise words from one of my favorite album producers.
4/8/11
Sold Out...two words that carry a lot of weight. But there's some misunderstanding in the marketplace about quantity decisions made behind the scenes. So I'll ramble a little. Rambling is fun.
I read a letter yesterday from someone wondering why we didn't just make at least 2000 copies of TWO FLAGS WEST. The short answer is we made what we thought we could readily sell. The long answer is we made what we thought we could readily sell. In other words, we took a guess. It's not rocket science. We have no crystal ball. We have experience and common sense and mostly we have limited resources to gamble with - which all amounts to the same thing... we guess. This time we guessed wrong. We didn't contract for enough copies. On the other hand, our warehouse is packed with wrong guesses that went the other way. Too many copies.
Unlike the norm years ago, most of the limited edition CDs we release today have their costs loaded up front, not in back. We often pay the royalties and mechanicals (publishing) at first signing, before the project actually goes into production. And all of the restoration, mastering, printing, manufacturing and packaging costs come on the front end as well. Whether we sell all copies or none, the costs remain. To err on the side of caution is far better than erring the other way.
That said, I don't like seeing something sell out in a matter of hours. I just can't always see it coming. Our Fox releases are especially tricky because we have significant overhead on those titles and the projects frequently involve music from films fifty or sixty years ago, where the market interest in scores of that vintage is especially small. We try to sort out why people dive after Friedhofer's TWO FLAGS WEST paired with the few surviving cues from a John Wayne picture called NORTH TO ALASKA and yet show little interest in a complete John Wayne western soundtrack for THE WAR WAGON or Friedhofer's THE REVOLT OF MAMIE STOVER. But we can't sort it out. People begged us for years to find a way to make 48 HRS. a reality... until we finally managed it. Then the audience turned out to be a lot smaller than we predicted. Yet when we did the same composer's lower profile project JOURNEY OF NATTY GANN, we moved more copies of it in a week than the former blockbuster has sold in months.
Jerry Fielding remains a favorite topic around here. In the era of LAWMAN and BRING ME THE HEAD OF ALFREDO GARCIA we slowly built up a loyal following of about a thousand people. Subsequent releases boosted the audience upwards and we suddenly found that 1500 copies of a Fielding CD would sell out quickly. People got frustrated when they sold out and wondered why we didn't make 2000 copies instead. And so it played out until we increased the quantity on an expensive Fielding project from the elusive Universal vaults, GRAY LADY DOWN. The audience suddenly became fickle. And when we at last landed with Fielding's long-awaited and highly desirable STRAW DOGS, the results were baffling. We still have copies, albeit admittedly only some 40 or 50. But still. Where was our crystal ball when we needed it? THE BLACK BIRD brought us even more down to earth. All those folks shouting out how Fielding easily can sell 2000 copies... I guess they were a bit off the mark. Just like us. Leigh Harline is another tough nut to crack. People were excited about THE ENEMY BELOW but not so much his equally unrecorded - and arguably more important - score for PICKUP ON SOUTH STREET.
Try sorting this one out: Our Fox two-fer with scores by Leigh Harline and Lionel Newman (TRUE STORY OF JESSE JAMES & THE LAST WAGON) hit a chord with our target audience but a subsequent Fox two-fer with similar premieres by the same two composers (THESE THOUSAND HILLS & THE PROUD ONES) failed to strike a chord at all.
In a nutshell, for every instant seller there's a slow seller... followed by a non-seller. Multiply that by numerous labels all cranking out exciting (and sometimes not exciting) releases every week, all competing for your dollar... and you've got a warehouse full of guesses.
We'll continue doing our best to predict our audience, sign up for particular quantities and hope we don't lose money with misfires... but a guessing game it'll remain. We truly love chasing down the elements, getting licenses and putting up our own money to make stuff available for other people to enjoy. Since I mentioned the Fox stuff carries a certain overhead, I would be remiss if I didn't also point out that Fox remains the most dedicated studio working to not only preserve these elements but to also make them available for others to enjoy. It's really heart-warming to have Nick Redman ping me with a pair of old scores he's just managed to salvage. It's exciting no matter what label ends up delivering them to you folks. I buy 'em, too. Anyway, none of us involved in this expensive but thrilling enterprise - from the union and studios through the labels and their customers - have anything more to go on about predicting saleable quantities than hopes, prayers... and guesses. Which means we'll continue to see stuff old and new by the likes of Bronislau Kaper, Dimitri Tiomkin, Leigh Harline, Alan Silvestri and James Horner strike fire one week and barely smoke the next.
We try to help things stay somewhat predictable by having a reliable release pattern every other Tuesday, making announcements every other Monday, offering clues with Roger on the Forum each weekend prior, posting reminders in my blog here and stuff like that. We're hoping to coax you into making our site a priority destination as often as possible... or at least every other Monday evening when the announcements are posted so you won't miss out. Through it all I hope dedicated fans mostly manage to get what they want. There are certainly tons of releases coming out everywhere to keep you... and us busy.
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Excellent read
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Right on the money in every way. It IS baffling sometimes. It's happened to us repeatedly. Why did Love With The Proper Stranger/A Girl Named Tamiko by Elmer Bernstein sell out 1500 copies in two or three days, while we're still sitting on 200 Fear Strikes Out/The Tin Star at the same number of units? If we'd done 1000 Counterfeit Traitors I'll go out on a limb and say that would now be sold out and would have been in a week or less. But we didn't - we did 1500 because I could not imagine there wouldn't be that kind of interest in a never before released and major Alfred Newman score. Alas and alack, it is our lowest seller ever. However, if we'd done only the 1000, bye bye Traitor. So, next time I do a major Elmer score from Paramount (and we have one coming), will I press 1500? I doubt it. I'll probably press 1200 or 1000 and it will sell out quickly at that number, because frankly after Fear/Tin I'm probably not willing to err again.
Our Monday title at 1000 units? Well, let's put it this way - I know what my dealers are taking so I can predict pretty safely it will be a VERY fast sellout, at least through us. So, just giving notice.
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Warehouse full of none sellers INTRADA?
Try selling them at lower costs like Lala Land who seems to have monthly specials all the time and some of the LOWEST prices around.
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This was a nice read but doesn't ask hit at the REAL question:
Did Intrada sell most of their units to other retailers so that say the 300,400 copies they sell official from their own website would sell out and thus create PANIC purchasing.
If I title sells out in 3-7 days that at least shows that people were interested and you get more comments along the lines of "Damn, I should have bought it when I had the chance" rather then "I went to sleep and figured it would be around longer then 6 hours!"
Seems odd that Lala Land who announces titles in advance (which is great to those who need the 3-5 days to process funds using PAYPAL) and has yet to have a sell out within a weeks time.
That being said, good luck with KIDCO!
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Here is another question, does ANY label aim for EVERYONE of their titles to sell out?
This is unrealistic/impossible isn't it?
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Posted: |
Apr 9, 2011 - 3:20 PM
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By: |
mastadge
(Member)
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Here is another question, does ANY label aim for EVERYONE of their titles to sell out?
This is unrealistic/impossible isn't it?
Yes, that's the aim. They invest in these things needing to make a return on that investment in order to be able to invest in future batches. With all those up-front costs he talks about, if a number of titles don't recoup their costs quickly, it could be a major blow for the label.
As for the comment about LLL, I wonder how the economics of that play out. I've never been in business so I don't know. I mean, selling titles that aren't moving at reduced prices at least stops them from taking up space (and therefore money) in the warehouse (or garage or wherever these things are stored) and brings in a little money sooner than later. If a title slowly trickles out at full price, does the cost of storage outweigh the loss LLL (for instance) takes when they slash prices to move things more quickly? I think one problem with the LLL model (and the yearly (or so) MSM sales, for instance) is that some customers come to expect those things, and will hold off on purchases until the price drops, which is certainly not good for the label in question!
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Yes, that's the aim. They invest in these things needing to make a return on that investment in order to be able to invest in future batches. With all those up-front costs he talks about, if a number of titles don't recoup their costs quickly, it could be a major blow for the label.
As for the comment about LLL, I wonder how the economics of that play out. I've never been in business so I don't know. I mean, selling titles that aren't moving at reduced prices at least stops them from taking up space (and therefore money) in the warehouse (or garage or wherever these things are stored) and brings in a little money sooner than later. If a title slowly trickles out at full price, does the cost of storage outweigh the loss LLL (for instance) takes when they slash prices to move things more quickly? I think one problem with the LLL model (and the yearly (or so) MSM sales, for instance) is that some customers come to expect those things, and will hold off on purchases until the price drops, which is certainly not good for the label in question!
If the labels wish for constant sell outs, why don't they do the following:
Announce a title and take pre-orders.
Clearly the labels have the option of 1,500 or 1,200 units, etc so this would seems like an ideal way to gage the interest.
Of course if you are only allowed X number of units they what can you do but can get more but don't for fear of the title sitting in a warehouse why not see how many you can sell in advance.
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Posted: |
Apr 9, 2011 - 3:34 PM
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By: |
mastadge
(Member)
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If the labels wish for constant sell outs, why don't they do the following:
Announce a title and take pre-orders.
Clearly the labels have the option of 1,500 or 1,200 units, etc so this would seems like an ideal way to gage the interest.
I've suggested and discussed this sort of pre-order or subscription model before. I'd love see how it works. There are problems with it: some people don't pre-order on general principle, and will not send money until something's ready to go; others will commit to purchase something and then back out at the last minute. Even with that sort of thing, though, I'd be very curious to see how it would work to have, say, a 2-week (or month-long) pre-order period for a title.
I think another drawback is that it probably takes a long time to prepare a release, so the pre-order period would have to be insanely far in advance, pre-negotiation, which is not great, or would have to come sometime after most of the work has been done and the costs have been committed, which could be just as awkward as the current model.
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Right on the money in every way. It IS baffling sometimes. It's happened to us repeatedly. Why did Love With The Proper Stranger/A Girl Named Tamiko by Elmer Bernstein sell out 1500 copies in two or three days, while we're still sitting on 200 Fear Strikes Out/The Tin Star at the same number of units? If we'd done 1000 Counterfeit Traitors I'll go out on a limb and say that would now be sold out and would have been in a week or less. But we didn't - we did 1500 because I could not imagine there wouldn't be that kind of interest in a never before released and major Alfred Newman score. Alas and alack, it is our lowest seller ever. However, if we'd done only the 1000, bye bye Traitor. So, next time I do a major Elmer score from Paramount (and we have one coming), will I press 1500? I doubt it. I'll probably press 1200 or 1000 and it will sell out quickly at that number, because frankly after Fear/Tin I'm probably not willing to err again.
Our Monday title at 1000 units? Well, let's put it this way - I know what my dealers are taking so I can predict pretty safely it will be a VERY fast sellout, at least through us. So, just giving notice.
Is it fair to say that '70s horror releases tend to have a stronger chance of selling out quickly? Kritzerland's recent sales might suggest that, but I'm not sure if this is true for all labels.
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I've suggested and discussed this sort of pre-order or subscription model before. I'd love see how it works. There are problems with it: some people don't pre-order on general principle, and will not send money until something's ready to go; others will commit to purchase something and then back out at the last minute. Even with that sort of thing, though, I'd be very curious to see how it would work to have, say, a 2-week (or month-long) pre-order period for a title.
I think another drawback is that it probably takes a long time to prepare a release, so the pre-order period would have to be insanely far in advance, pre-negotiation, which is not great, or would have to come sometime after most of the work has been done and the costs have been committed, which could be just as awkward as the current model.
Well, it seems like the labels for the most part ask themselves, how many units do we think this will see and eventually settle on a number and something tells me this is done once the project is completed and ready to be pressed so it seems foolish that once the pre-sell is announced that you would wait more then a week or two and even if you did... it's called a pre-sell.
Say KIDCO sold 500 units in the two weeks of pre-sell, then Intrada would more then likely limit the number at 1,000 units or maybe even 800 and even if they have a hard time selling the remaining 300, at least it's only 300 and not 500 or 800 titles to move.
But if say ROBOCOP and SPACE CAMP sold all 3,000 units in pre-sell then Intrada could press decided to make it a 4,000 unit or even 5,000 unit run.
I think this would create buzz because the label could state "Robocop, 3,000 units already sold in pre-orders and only 1,000 will be available on date of release." and it would show that this title might not stick around for 3 or 4 months time. Act accordingly.
I think all labels could try this model with ONE title.
I know if GREMLINS were announced for pre-sell tomorrow I would buy one! And for me as long as I know I'm getting the damn thing I don't care if I wait a month or two.
Once stateside I used to buy tickets for events way in advance so why wouldn't it work for film scores?
Hell, even in iTunes I can pre-order an album and once a track is released as a single I get that track first before the entire album.
It seems impossible that a label would take pre-orders and then the title would cease to be or fall apart. I'm not saying that titles that seemed a go don't fall through but if you are at the point of saying 1,000 or 1,500 units I assume that it's too late for the release to be scrapped.
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Right on the money in every way. It IS baffling sometimes. It's happened to us repeatedly. Why did Love With The Proper Stranger/A Girl Named Tamiko by Elmer Bernstein sell out 1500 copies in two or three days, while we're still sitting on 200 Fear Strikes Out/The Tin Star at the same number of units? If we'd done 1000 Counterfeit Traitors I'll go out on a limb and say that would now be sold out and would have been in a week or less. But we didn't - we did 1500 because I could not imagine there wouldn't be that kind of interest in a never before released and major Alfred Newman score. Alas and alack, it is our lowest seller ever. However, if we'd done only the 1000, bye bye Traitor. So, next time I do a major Elmer score from Paramount (and we have one coming), will I press 1500? I doubt it. I'll probably press 1200 or 1000 and it will sell out quickly at that number, because frankly after Fear/Tin I'm probably not willing to err again.
Our Monday title at 1000 units? Well, let's put it this way - I know what my dealers are taking so I can predict pretty safely it will be a VERY fast sellout, at least through us. So, just giving notice.
I find it particularly baffling in the case of Fear Strikes Out / The Tin Star (which I reviewed today at my website). Fabulous release, that.
I used to think I could predict what would go quickly and what wouldn't. I was wrong. I held off the recent Friedhofer/Newman album from Intrada (for reasons which now escape me) expecting to have a few days - but by the time I woke up the next morning, it was gone.
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Times are hard. A lot what was once released at 3000 copies will now be 1000. If you like this stuff then you have to be on the ball. When you think of all the hoops that the record companies have to jump through to get these titles out, then it's not asking to much for the buyers to stay alert. What would help, if after the CD sell out, the title was then available on download.
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