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Predictions are in boldface, followed by those which I personally would nominate in italics. As with previous years' lists, for several categories I have NOT provided my own nominations, since frankly I know jack about costumes, sound and so forth, though more and more I try to pay attention to sound in particular. Films that I have listed as my own personal nominations yet which will definitely not be nominated -- either because they are ultimately ineligible in those categories or simply not shortlisted -- are marked with an asterisk.

The actual nominations will be announced this Thursday morning around 5:30 am (Pacific Time). I would have finished this list earlier, but things have been rather distracting in Los Angeles County for the last week or two. You may have seen some pictures in the news.


PICTURE
 
ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
CHALLENGERS
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
EMILIA PEREZ
NICKEL BOYS
SING SING
WICKED
 
ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
DIDI
A DIFFERENT MAN
FLOW
FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA
GOOD ONE
NICKEL BOYS
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG
SEPTEMBER 5 

ACTOR

ADRIEN BRODY – The Brutalist
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET – A Complete Unknown
DANIEL CRAIG - Queer
COLMAN DOMINGO – Sing Sing
RALPH FIENNES - Conclave
 
ADRIEN BRODY – The Brutalist
TIMOTHEE CHALAMET – A Complete Unknown
COLMAN DOMINGO – Sing Sing
RALPH FIENNES – The Return
SEBASTIAN STAN – A Different Man

ACTRESS
 
MARIANNE JEAN-BAPTISTE – Hard Truths
ANGELINA JOLIE - Maria
NICOLE KIDMAN - Babygirl
MIKEY MADISON – Anora
DEMI MOORE – The Substance
 
AMY ADAMS - Nightbitch
LILY COLLIAS – Good One
MARIANNE JEAN-BAPTISTE - Hard Truths
NICOLE KIDMAN - Babygirl
MIKEY MADISON – Anora  

SUPPORTING ACTOR
 
EDWARD NORTON – A Complete Unknown
CLARENCE MACLIN – Sing Sing
GUY PEARCE – The Brutalist
STANLEY TUCCI – Conclave
DENZEL WASHINGTON – Gladiator II
 
KIERAN CULKIN - A Real Pain
BRIAN TYREE HENRY – The Fire Inside
EDWARD NORTON- A Complete Unknown
JEREMY STRONG  - The Apprentice
STANLEY TUCCI - Conclave 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
 
AUNJANUE ELLIS-TAYLOR – Nickel Boys
ELLE FANNING – A Complete Unknown
SELENA GOMEZ – Emillia Perez
FELICITY JONES – The Brutalist
ISABELLA ROSSELLINII – Conclave
 
JOAN CHEN - Didi
AUNJANUE ELLIS-TAYLOR – Nickel Boys
FELICITY JONES - The Brutalist
NATASHA LEONE – His Three Daughters
ISABELLA ROSSELLINI – Conclave

DIRECTING

ANORA - Sean Baker
THE BRUTALIST - Brady Corbet
CONCLAVE - Edward Berger
EMILIA PEREZ - Jacques Audiard
NICKEL BOYS - RaMell Ross
 
ANORA - Sean Baker
THE BRUTALIST - Brady Corbet
GOOD ONE - India Donaldson
NICKEL BOYS - RaMell Ross
SEPTEMBER 5 - Tim Fehlman

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
 
ANORA
THE BRUTALIST
CHALLENGERS
HARD TRUTHS
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG
 
THE BRUTALIST
A DIFFERENT MAN
GOOD ONE
THE SEED OF THE SACRED FIG
SEPTEMBER 5

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
 
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PEREZ
I’M STILL HERE
NICKEL BOYS
SING SING
 
CONCLAVE 
FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA
INSIDE OUT 2 
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
SING SING

CINEMATOGRAPHY
 
THE BRUTALIST
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
EMILIA PEREZ
MARIA
NICKEL BOYS
 
ANORA
BLITZ
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
MARIA
SEPTEMBER 5

FILM EDITING
 
THE BRUTALIST
CHALLENGERS
CONCLAVE
EMILIA PEREZ
NICKEL BOYS
 
CIVIL WAR
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN 
DUNE: PART TWO
FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA
SEPTEMBER 5

PRODUCTION DESIGN
 
THE BRUTALIST
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
WICKED
 
BLITZ
THE BRUTALIST
CONCLAVE
DUNE: PART TWO
FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA

COSTUME DESIGN
 
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
DUNE: PART TWO
GLADIATOR II
MARIA
WICKED

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
 
THE BRUTALIST – Daniel Blumberg
CHALLENGERS – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
CONCLAVE – Volker Bertelmann
THE ROOM NEXT DOOR – Alberto Iglesias
THE WILD ROBOT – Kris Bowers
 
THE BRUTALIST – Daniel Blumberg
A DIFFERENT MAN - Umberto Smerilli*
THE PIANO LESSON – Alexandre Desplat*
THE ROOM NEXT DOOR - Alberto Iglesias
WOLFS – Theodore Shapiro*

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
 
"BEYOND" - Moana 2
“THE JOURNEY” - The Six Triple Eight
“MI CAMINO” - Emilia Perez
“NEVER TOO LATE” - Elton John: Never Too Late
“WINTER COAT” - Blitz 

"BEAUTIFUL THAT WAY" - The Last Showgirl*
"BEYOND" - Moana 2
"HARPER AND WILL GO WEST" - Will & Harper
“MI CAMINO” - Emilia Perez 
“WINTER COAT” - Blitz

SOUND
 
BLITZ
A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
DUNE: PART TWO
GLADIATOR II
WICKED

VISUAL EFFECTS
 
BETTER MAN
DUNE: PART TWO
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
MUFASA: THE LION KING
TWISTERS
 
BETTER MAN
BLITZ*
DUNE: PART TWO
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
TWISTERS

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
 
A DIFFERENT MAN
EMILIA PÉREZ
NOSFERATU
THE SUBSTANCE
WICKED
 
A DIFFERENT MAN
EMILIA PEREZ
NOSFERATU
SASQUATCH SUNSET*
THE SUBSTANCE 

ANIMATED FEATURE
 
FLOW
INSIDE OUT 2
MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
THE WILD ROBOT
 
FLOW
INSIDE OUT 2
MEMOIR OF A SNAIL
WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL
THE WILD ROBOT

MY FAVORITE FILMS OF 2024
 
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
DUNE: PART TWO
THE FALL GUY
FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
MY OLD ASS
THE ORDER
PROBLEMISTA
SEPTEMBER 5
WOLFS

MY LEAST FAVORITE FILMS OF 2024
 
AFRAID
ARGYLLE
GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE
JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX
THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM
MADAME WEB
MEGALOPOLIS
PIECE BY PIECE
REBEL MOON – PART 2: THE SCARGIVER

STRANGE DARLING
MY FAVORITE THINGS FROM THE MOVIES OF 2024
 
All of those lengthy musical numbers in A Complete Unknown. For the first time in my long life, I found myself actually wanting to own Bob Dylan albums. 
 
Brad Pitt and George Clooney in Wolfs. Because sometimes movie stars just being movie stars in a movie star-vehicle is enough. (Though Austin Abrams stole the film, as usual. He’s also really good in The Line, an underrated, little-seen film, in a far less endearing role).
 
Conclave – I thought director Edward Berger’s multi-Oscar-winning remake of All Quiet on the Western Front was hugely overrated, so this one was an extremely pleasant surprise.
 
Emma Stone’s dance at the end of Kinds of Kindness, and the climactic scene that follows.
 
That epic final shot of Sydney Sweeney in Immaculate (and the disconnect of seeing The First Omen a few weeks later, a film whose plot so closely mirrors Immaculate that it could almost be a remake).
 
The final scene in Anora, especially that closeup of Mikey Madison looking at Yura Borisov (and us).
 
Hunter Schafer and Dan Stevens in Cuckoo, the most entertaining horror movie of the year.
 
Interstellar’s 10th anniversary re-release on 70mm IMAX. Boy, do I love that movie. The score, too. Though perhaps the most unbelievable science-fiction element of it is casting Timothee Chalamet as someone who actually wants to spend his life farming.
 
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – for many things, especially the extraordinary visual effects, and for continuing the rebooted franchise in a way that more than does credit to the original series.
 
None of them were favorites of mine, but I couldn’t fail to be impressed by the sheer number of musicals and quasi-musicals released in the last months of 2024 – Better Man, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, The End, Maria, Moana 2, Mufasa: The Lion King, and Wicked (I enjoyed Complete Unknown, The End and Maria the most of these; Better Man the least)
 
Oddity – the best horror movie of 2024.
 
The opening scene with the firehose in Blitz. I only wish the rest of the film was nearly as involving, possibly the biggest disappointment of the movie year.
 
The Order – director Justin Kurzel’s true-crime movies (which also include Snowtown and Nitram) are so good that it makes his two Fassbender-Cotillard misfires (Macbeth, Assassin’s Creed) especially frustrating. 
 
Ralph Fiennes in The Return. Yes, even better than he was in Conclave.
 
Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy, reminding us what charismatic stars in big screen romances are supposed to be like.
 
September 5 – arguably the best new film I saw in 2024, and definitely my favorite.
 
Stanley Tucci in Conclave. He’s always wonderful (we’ll just pretend his performance as Merlin in Transformers: The Last Knight never happened), and he’d been too long without a worthy big-screen role. But I’ve heard rumors he enjoys Italian food. If only he could do something practical with that love...
 
That moment in Will & Harper where that young guy at the bar thanks Will for being such a good friend to Harper. Yes, I cry easily at movies – what about it?
 
Though The Brutalist was overall quite good, I think what I appreciated the most was the old-fashioned presentation of its release. Seeing a 70mm “VistaVision” screening (at a one-screen theater no less, but with a lobby so insufficient that the concessions and restroom lines stretched all the way out to the curb), with a built-in intermission (take that, Scorsese!), and even a special program handout (a brochure about the fictional community center built in the film) made me nostalgic for that that 1960s era of “roadshow” presentations (which I was alive during but never actually witnessed). I only hope that, in the same spirit, the inevitable vinyl-only soundtrack release will have an elaborate gatefold cover with a large album of full-page color photos. Hurry up, A24!
 
When I came out of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, I was convinced it was the best of the series. No one else seems to agree with me, but it’s my gut reaction and I’m sticking to it (for now).
 
Perhaps the most WTF moment of my moviegoing year was the first time I saw the trailer for Strange Darling and its full title card “DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY GIOVANNI RIBISI.”
 
And since I saw 312 “older” films in theaters in 2024 (compared to 176 of this year’s releases), here are some of my favorite films and/or moviegoing experiences among them: Apocalypse Now (the 1979 cut, in 70mm), Blow Out, Boogie Nights, Charley Varrick, Crossing Delancey, Earthquake, The Food of the Gods, Frogs, Heat, Heaven’s Gate, Holiday, Jason and the Argonauts, Los Angeles Plays Itself, Marathon Man, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Monkey Business, Moneyball, On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, Oppenheimer (70mm IMAX), Outland, The Outlaw Josey Wales, The Palm Beach Story, Patton (70mm), Quatermass and the Pit, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Shin Godzilla, A Shot in the Dark, The Social Network, Step Up 3D, The Swarm, Tenet (70mm IMAX), Who Framed Roger Rabbit, and The Wild Bunch
 

MY FAVORITE SOUNDTRACK CD RELEASES OF 2024
 
EYE OF THE NEEDLE: THE DELUXE EDITION [Varese Sarabande CD Club]
JERRY GOLDSMITH AT THE GENERAL ELECTRIC THEATER [Intrada]
LIVE AND LET DIE [La-La Land]
THE MAN WITH THE GOLDEN GUN [La-la Land]
MOONRAKER [La-La Land]
OCTOPUSSY [La-La Land]
THE OTHER [Varese Sarabande CD Club]
RESURRECTION [Intrada Special Collection]
THE SUGARLAND EXPRESS [La-La Land]
TORN CURTAIN [La-La Land]

THE BEST SCORES OF 2024 COMMERCIALLY UNRELEASED ON CD
 
THE AMERICAN SOCIETY OF MAGICAL NEGROES - Michael Abels
THE BRUTALIST - Daniel Blumberg
A DIFFERENT MAN - Umberto Smerilli
THE INSTIGATORS - Christophe Beck
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES - John Paesano [LP]
MY OLD ASS - Tyler Hilton, Jaco Caraco
THE ORDER - Jed Kurzel
THE PIANO LESSON - Alexandre Desplat
THE RETURN - Rachel Portman
WOLFS - Theodore Shapiro
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Comments (4):Log in or register to post your own comments
Curious that you put DUNE PART TWO in your ten favorites and ten expected nominees for Best Picture, but not in the films that you personally would nominate for Best Picture. Make it make sense! (DUNE PART TWO, for all its shortcomings, was my favorite picture of the year.)

I share your sentiments re CONCLAVE ( a thousand times better than ALL QUIET) so I'm surprised you give that short shrift as well (e.g., Fiennes deserves his nomination for that film).

Supporting Actress | JOAN CHEN - DIDI

It's incredibly likely this won't happen for real, but she was indeed terrific in this movie; a sweeter and more patient mother than the jackass main character deserved. Her work in this movie really hits home how misused she was in schlock like On Deadly Ground and Judge Dredd (though the "Bitch!" "Judge Bitch!" exchange from the latter still makes me giggle).

MY LEAST FAVORITE FILMS OF 2024 | AFRAID

Made my personal list, too, which is a damn shame. A movie about the ever more tangible threat of AI replacing talented craftspeople, making humans complacent and turning us against what we wrongly assume to be threats is as timely as it gets. The first half really dug into these issues. What's more, it was a kick to see John Cho in another Sony-produced, August-released "technology, amirite?" thriller after the infinitely superior Searching and Keith Carradine was a delight as his boss. Then, the second half happens and it's like AI actually took over the production. So many unanswered questions that spoiled the whole experience.

PIECE BY PIECE

I've only seen the trailer, but...if studios are really going to resort to ludicrous gimmicks to make and sell their music biopics, maybe it's time to send music biopics the way of Old Yeller. (People can tell me otherwise until the Earth flies off its axis and crashes into the sun. The monkey gimmick of Better Man is goofy.) A Complete Unknown didn't seem to employ any gimmicks and it's getting good reviews and box office without caveats. Go figure.

MY FAVORITE THINGS FROM THE MOVIES OF 2024 | Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy, reminding us what charismatic stars in big screen romances are supposed to be like.

I'm sorry, but even now, the romance angle of this otherwise pretty darn good movie struck me as phony. So, Blunt was just able to waste plenty of studio time and money reshooting one stunt just to punish Gosling? Also, late in the film, he was on the phone with her repairing their relationship while bad guys were trying to kill him?

Overall, I think the Oscar predictions are pretty accurate. However, I would give Oscars for best visual effects and best editing to WICKED.

September 5 would be my choice for best picture of 2024 as well.

For the most part I agree with your predictions. However I would be rather surprised if Karla Sofía Garcòn and Zoe Zaldana would not get nominated as best actress and supporting actress for Emilia Perez and Kieran Culkin as best supporting actor for A Real Pain.

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